Integrated Probabilistic Engagement Modeling and Guidance Accuracy Optimization for Launch and Lethal Zone Construction
321 viewsDOI:
https://doi.org/10.54939/1859-1043.j.mst.112.2026.38-46Keywords:
Launch zone; Lethal zone; Probability of kill; Missile simulation; Weapon effectiveness.Abstract
This paper develops a unified probabilistic framework for missile–target engagement assessment integrating kinematic reachability, fragment-based lethality modeling, and stochastic terminal guidance uncertainty. Closed-form approximations for expected kill probability are derived under Rayleigh-distributed miss distance. Analytical asymptotic analysis reveals an exponential dependence of engagement effectiveness on inverse-squared guidance accuracy. A deterministic lethal-radius model is compared with the proposed probabilistic formulation, demonstrating significant overestimation by traditional methods. An optimization problem is formulated to determine the minimum required terminal guidance accuracy ensuring a prescribed kill probability threshold. The results provide quantitative design constraints for guidance and control system development.
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